He's going to need Europe when he becomes prime minister, as it is sensible to assume he will. Cameron has annoyed Angela Merkel and other powerful European conservative leaders by breaking away from their EPP grouping in the Strasbourg parliament and expelling veteran Tory MEP Edward McMillan-Scott for sticking to his/their agreed ground.

The paranoid rightwing press, owned by tax exiles, pornographers and other riff-raff (yes, Rupert, I mean you), already suspects a sell-out in the making: that Dave is keen to wriggle out of the commitment he made when running for leader that he would hold a UK ballot if the Lisbon treaty was not fully ratified when he became prime minister. Which version of this under-reported event is true? As Kettle points out, we don't know, because Dave's 'Dear Vac' letter has not been published in full, only in selective bits to cynical but credulous news outlets. Links with Cameron? Did you know that? Yes, last month Dave wrote privately to Klaus, either urging him not to sign because Dave will soon be in a position to torpedo the treaty with a UK referendum – or, more prudently, praising his tough stance. My top EU source told me an hour ago that he thinks Prague will sign – 'because the pressure will be huge, but Klaus is very obstinate and has links with Cameron.' German pressure on Prague has been deemed bad form since 1945, so the French will lead the squeeze.

But, as Martin Kettle writes in today's Guardian, real doubts exist about the Czech Republic, where hardline president Václav Klaus has had a string of excuses for putting off his signature. It's generally assumed that a positive vote today would encourage the recalcitrant Poles to buckle in return for an extra sausage. Rupert Murdoch always likes to back the winner.īut there's more to this than Ireland's yes. Being hostile to Europe is as reflex a feature of their coverage as it is in the O'Sun – though a yes vote may change that. Dear old Bill Cash MP and his ilk are keen travellers whenever an EU referendum is in the air.Īnd Fleet Street newspapers with falling circulation at home do not hesitate to expand their production in Dublin as readers of the Daily O'Mail and the Sunday O'Times will confirm. Such talk comes a bit odd from Brits who do not hesitate to interfere with other people's national sovereignty themselves. Foreign interference with the sacred national sovereignty of the Irish people that the British Tory party struggled to uphold for centuries (ho ho).įunnily enough, Sinn Féin/IRA also takes this view, along with assorted leftwing groups and Ganley who has re-entered the fray at the last minute. Brussels has broken its rules and pumped in money, they cry. Hardcore British Eurosceptics like Dan (I regard myself as a mildcore one) and Europhobes are furious. A little prematurely, I feel bound to point out, welcome though this rare bout of introspection is welcome. In his Daily Telegraph blog, my old Peruvian sparring partner Dan Hannan MEP is puzzled. Ireland's economy has been poleaxed by the excesses of the banking community – and no, we can't blame Brown for it either.Ī chastened electorate is thus widely expected to vote yes. That's what today's vote is about, a very similar proposition but in a very different setting. This being the wrong answer, Brussels slipped Dublin a few concessions and invited Brian Cowen's government to try harder. That's what the Irish vote should have been about last time – not about Nato membership or the Republic's right to force nice Catholic girls to go to England for their abortions.Įgged on by Anglo-Irish millionaire Declan Ganley, whose incoherent views, political ambitions and likely fate I correctly predicted here last year (he got hammered in the 4 June Euro-elections), Ireland's 3 million voters said no. It should allow an EU of 27 to function a little more effectively in the new world of major blocs now emerging. So Brussels scaled down its pretensions and produced the Lisbon treaty, which enshrines practical advantages – easier voting majorities, a council president etc. French and Dutch voters rejected this deeply tedious document, which I read on Ken Clarke's behalf. Along with Gordon Brown – I'm afraid Master Blair was a bit wobbly, but he doesn't really get economics, does he just look at his house-buying record – we didn't think it the right choice for the outward-looking British economy, though we wished our neighbours well. But Margaret and I shared doubts about the next big decision we had to take together: the euro.

Ho ho hopefully tried and trued